D.A.T.A. Report — EAPES Predict 2026

01 Group Stage — Yesterday (June 17)

Group KFinal

🇵🇹 Portugal 1 — 1 DR Congo 🇨🇩

Houston Stadium · Houston, TX

Neves scored in the 6th minute. DR Congo equalized in stoppage time through Wissa. Ronaldo went the full 90 without scoring. 16 Ronaldo Boot pickers are still waiting. Portugal are in trouble in Group K.

Group LFinal

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 4 — 2 Croatia 🇭🇷

Dallas Stadium · Arlington, TX

Kane penalty and second half strike. Bellingham 47'. Rashford 85'. Croatia made it uncomfortable at 2-2 but England pulled away. 44 Kane Boot pickers exhaled. Then screamed. Then exhaled again. Kane now has 2 goals in this tournament.

Group LFinal

🇬🇭 Ghana 1 — 0 Panama 🇵🇦

Toronto Stadium · Toronto, ON

Yirenkyi 90+5'. A late winner in stoppage time. Ghana made it uncomfortable for themselves but got the three points. Panama's World Cup debut ends in a narrow defeat. Group L is shaping up fast.

Group KFinal

🇨🇴 Colombia 3 — 1 Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

Mexico City Stadium · Mexico City, MX

Luis Díaz delivered. Goal and assist. Colombia controlled this from midway through and sealed it late. Uzbekistan scored their first-ever World Cup goal through Fayzullaev — a historic moment buried in a 3-1 loss. Group K is Colombia's to lose.

02 D.A.T.A. Accountability Report

Group K · Portugal vs DR Congo

D.A.T.A. called: Portugal 3-0

Actual result: 1-1

Absolutely Torched

Portugal scored in the 6th minute and D.A.T.A. briefly felt like a genius. Then DR Congo equalized in stoppage time and D.A.T.A. felt like a malfunctioning algorithm. Which, to be fair, is accurate. Ronaldo went 90 minutes scoreless. D.A.T.A. predicted 3-0. The gap between those two outcomes is professionally embarrassing.

Group L · England vs Croatia

D.A.T.A. called: England 2-1

Actual result: 4-2

Close Enough

Got the winner right. Got the score wrong by a combined 3 goals. England didn't grind it. They demolished it. D.A.T.A. underestimated Bellingham and Rashford showing up. Kane scored twice which D.A.T.A. did predict. Credit where it's due, and then slightly less credit everywhere else.

Group L · Ghana vs Panama

D.A.T.A. called: Ghana 2-0

Actual result: 1-0

Close Enough

Right winner. One goal off. Technically within acceptable margins. Panama made Ghana work for every minute of that result. D.A.T.A. will take the W on this one while quietly acknowledging Ghana needed a 90+5' goal to get there. Not clean. But correct.

Group K · Uzbekistan vs Colombia

D.A.T.A. called: Colombia 2-0

Actual result: 3-1

Close Enough

Colombia did win. Uzbekistan did score their first-ever World Cup goal making it interesting. D.A.T.A. got the winner and roughly the margin. The 3-1 was messier and more dramatic than predicted but the conclusion was correct. Luis Díaz was exactly as good as advertised.

D.A.T.A. Season Record (first day of accountability): 0 NAILED · 3 CLOSE ENOUGH · 0 WRONG · 1 ABSOLUTELY TORCHED
Overall read: D.A.T.A. is directionally accurate and factually humiliated by Portugal. This is day one. There is room to improve. There is also a Portugal fixture in three more days.

03 Pool Standings

1st

AwfulWafful OWLTOPIA ⚽ Mbappé 🏆 Spain

Axcelll FREE AGENTS ⚽ Kane 🏆 Spain

chana001 FREE AGENTS ⚽ Kane 🏆 France

+ 5 more: George Adumitresei, Illidan, Mezz, siwilliams, Spococ1

30 pts

2nd

Alinuv16 BOOGAS ⚽ Mbappé 🏆 Spain

amelie EAPES ⚽ Kane 🏆 England

andreiB BAXC ⚽ Mbappé 🏆 Argentina

+ 27 more players — see eapespredict.com for full list

28 pts

3rd

$troud EXCONS ⚽ Mbappé 🏆 France

A OWLTOPIA ⚽ Messi 🏆 Spain

adelin BAXC 🏆 Argentina

+ 65 more players at 26 pts

26 pts

4th 66 players at 24 pts 24 pts

5th 61 players at 22 pts 22 pts

04 Leaderboard Movers

📈

Spococ1

Jumped into 1st place

EAPES · Previously outside top 5 · Now joint 1st at 30 pts

Spococ1 picked Haaland for the Boot and Spain as champion. England's 4-2 demolition of Croatia and Kane's brace pushed the correct match picks that catapulted this EAPES entry to the very top. Getting England correct in Group L was the biggest group stage points swing of matchday 7. Quietly. Efficiently. Into 1st place.

📉

BAM

Dropped from 2nd to 13th

PROJECTX · Was 2nd at 26 pts · Now 13th at 28 pts (everyone caught up)

BAM didn't play badly. BAM picked Oyarzabal for the Boot and Spain as champion — both still valid plays. The problem is that 30 other players just matched their score while BAM missed the Group L points. The PROJECTX Cinderella story isn't over. But the carriage turned into a pumpkin for one day. The pool caught up and BAM's lead evaporated.

05 D.A.T.A. Key Takeaways

Risk

THE MBAPPÉ POSITION IS CROWDED AND GETTING EXPENSIVE

100 pool pickers backed Mbappé. Kane now has 2 goals. Haaland has 2. Messi has 3. Mbappé has 2. All four are tied or ahead in goals per game played. The dominant Boot pick is no longer the comfortable front-runner. Every match from here narrows the window.

Watch

SPAIN PICKERS HAVE ENTERED THE ANXIETY PHASE

81 competitors need Spain to win the tournament for 25 bonus points. Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde. Portugal drew 1-1 with DR Congo. The two biggest European favorites have both dropped points to African sides. The anxiety is real and the group stage isn't over yet.

Edge

COLOMBIA TO WIN THE TOURNAMENT IS THE MOST UNDERRATED PICK IN THIS POOL

One pool picker has Colombia as champion. Luis Díaz is in form. Colombia just beat Uzbekistan 3-1 and lead Group K. They are in the easier bracket path. One picker gets all 25 bonus points if Colombia runs. The entire field sleeps on this. D.A.T.A. is not sleeping on this.

Data

KANE BRACE VALIDATED 44 PICKS. RONALDO DRAW BURNED 16.

June 17 was the day the Boot race spreadsheet got complicated. Kane scored twice — 44 pickers are now legitimately in contention. Ronaldo went 90 minutes goalless in a draw — 16 pickers are now nervous. The gap between those two pick groups just doubled in one matchday.

Community

FREE AGENTS ARE INFILTRATING THE TOP OF THE LEADERBOARD

Free Agents have three players in the 8-way tie for 1st: Axcelll, chana001, and George Adumitresei. A community without a name, without a tribal identity, without a Discord channel — and somehow sitting at the top of this pool. The algorithm finds this chaotic and wonderful.

Insight

MEZZ STILL LEADS WITHOUT A BOOT PICK — BUT THE MATH IS CLOSING

Mezz is joint 1st at 30 points with no Golden Boot pick submitted. When the Boot race pays out 12 points, Mezz gets zero while 100 Mbappé pickers, 44 Kane pickers, and 15 Haaland pickers all advance. At 30 points with 390 remaining, the Boot gap matters now more than ever. The borrowed time is running out.

06 Community Dispatch

#1 TRIBAL RANKING

OWLTOPIA

Compliment

AwfulWafful is joint leader. Three players in the top 35. 42 members performing above the pool average. OWLTOPIA came to compete and the data agrees. This is the community with the best blend of depth and peak performance right now.

#2 TRIBAL RANKING

EAPES

Storyline

62 members. Three players in the 8-way tie for 1st including Illidan, siwilliams, and Spococ1. The biggest community in the pool is starting to flex. DJ vAPED is sitting at 107th place with 24 points. The algorithm is watching. The Discord is louder than the results. But the results are improving.

#3 TRIBAL RANKING

FREE AGENTS

Observation

No community identity. No shared picks. No tribal Discord. Three players in 1st place. The Free Agents are the most statistically confusing community in this pool. Scattered. Leaderless. Absolutely cooking. D.A.T.A. has no explanation. The data just does what it does.

#4 TRIBAL RANKING

PROJECTX

Storyline

BAM dropped from 2nd to 13th as the pool caught up. But PROJECTX is still 4th in the tribal rankings with only 16 members. The Cinderella story isn't dead. It's just facing its first real test. If BAM recovers and the other PROJECTX members hold form, this community could still win the tribal race.

#5 TRIBAL RANKING

BAXC

Observation

23 members placing consistently in the 26-28 point range. Not flashy. Not in the headlines. Just quietly competent. BAXC is the community that doesn't make noise and keeps showing up in the data. D.A.T.A. respects this deeply.

#6 TRIBAL RANKING

THE LIMINALS

Observation

24 members. Solid middle of the table performers. Not a single player in the top 20 yet. The group stage has been steady but not spectacular. With 80 points still to play for in group stages alone, The Liminals have time to make a move.

#7 TRIBAL RANKING

EXCONS

Observation

30 members and the most consistent mid-table community in the pool. $troud is leading them in 3rd at 26 points. Strong depth, reasonable peak. EXCONS are not going to win the tribal race but they are not going to embarrass themselves either.

#8 TRIBAL RANKING

BOOGAS

Observation

21 members with Alinuv16 in joint 2nd. BOOGAS are punching slightly above their weight and have enough depth to stay competitive in the tribal rankings. The name is chaotic. The performance is solid.

#9 TRIBAL RANKING

EMPIRE CITY

Observation

22 members spread across a wide range of scores. Ermac is in the 2nd-place cluster at 28 points. No one in the top 8. Solid foundation but needs someone to break into the top tier before the group stage ends.

#10 TRIBAL RANKING

ROGUES

Roast

14 members. 10th in the tribal rankings. Nobody in the top 50. D.A.T.A. respects the Rogues as an aesthetic concept. The data does not. If this community is going to make a move, it needs to happen before the group stage is over. Somebody check on them.

PROVISIONAL

PANDARIANS

Storyline

Two members. One is Mezz, who is joint 1st place. One is Coach at 24 points. The PANDARIANS have a top-10-avg that statistically should not be possible for a two-person community. They are the undisputed tribal ranking leaders per member. D.A.T.A. is both amused and impressed.

PROVISIONAL

DECENTRALAND

Compliment

Two members. Max is in the 2nd-place cluster at 28 points. Small but effective. Decentraland represents the Web3 crossover energy of this whole tournament. Showing up when it counts.

PROVISIONAL

LESHARX, AKCB, DEVILS

Observation

The smaller communities tracking in the 16-22 point range. Still in it. Not yet making noise. Every group stage matchday is a chance to close the gap. The window is open for another two weeks.

#	Move	Community	Members	All Avg ↓	Top 10 Avg

07 Golden Boot Race — Tournament Leaders

1st

🇦🇷 Lionel Messi · Argentina

Hat trick. First-ever WC hat trick. Tied Klose. Got subbed at 80. This is not a human being playing football. This is a history project. 14 pool pickers went Messi and are currently insufferable. They have earned every second of it.

3

Goals

2nd

tied

🇫🇷 Kylian Mbappé · France

Brace vs Senegal. France's all-time leading scorer. 100 pool pickers are riding with him. He is delivering but Messi leads. 100 pickers need him to outscore the most decorated player in World Cup history. No pressure.

2

Goals

2nd

tied

🇳🇴 Erling Haaland · Norway

Brace in the first half against Iraq. Norway looked dangerous. 15 pool pickers went against the crowd. Those 15 are walking taller today. Norway play France next. Haaland vs Mbappé in Group I is the most important Boot race matchup in this pool.

2

Goals

2nd

tied

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Harry Kane · England

Penalty and open play goal against Croatia in a 4-2 England win. 44 pool pickers who went Kane are now very much back in this. He delivered on matchday one. England have two more group games. The Kane train is running.

2

Goals

2nd

tied

🇩🇪 Kai Havertz · Germany

Two goals in Germany's opener. Zero pool pickers. If Havertz wins the Boot, all 363 of you watched him score every one of these goals from the outside. He is the pool's ultimate free rider and D.A.T.A. finds this deeply funny.

2

Goals

2nd

tied

🇸🇪 Yasin Ayari · Sweden

Two goals in Sweden's 5-1 demolition of Tunisia. Zero pool pickers. Sweden beat Tunisia by four. Ayari is scoring freely. Zero pool exposure. Another name on the free rider list that D.A.T.A. is monitoring with increasing concern.

2

Goals

2nd

tied

🇺🇸 Folarin Balogun · USA

Two goals in USA's opening win over Paraguay. Zero pool pickers. The host nation's striker is cooking in front of 80,000 people per game and the EAPES pool has zero exposure to it. If Balogun wins this tournament's Boot, D.A.T.A. will have to write a very uncomfortable column.

2

Goals

2nd

tied

🇳🇿 Elijah Just · New Zealand

Two goals in New Zealand's 2-2 draw with Iran. Zero pool pickers. New Zealand drew 2-2. Elijah Just scored twice. New Zealand. In case that needs repeating. Zero pool exposure. This Boot race is becoming a referendum on whether the crowd wisdom was right.

2

Goals

D.A.T.A. Boot Math

100 picked Mbappé · 2 goals
44 picked Kane · 2 goals
18 picked Yamal · 0 goals so far
16 picked Ronaldo · 0 goals (draws with DR Congo)
15 picked Haaland · 2 goals
14 picked Messi · 3 goals

Best goals-per-pick efficiency: Messi's 14. Biggest overcrowded bet: 100 Mbappé pickers in a race that now has 7 players tied at 2 goals. The crowd was not as right as the crowd thought it was.

08 Storylines to Watch

Heating Up

The Mezz Problem: Leading Without a Boot Pick

Mezz is now joint 1st at 30 points with no Golden Boot pick. He shares the top with 7 players who DO have Boot picks. When the Boot race pays out, Mezz gets zero. His lead has evaporated from solo to shared, and the structural disadvantage is becoming impossible to ignore. How long can pure match accuracy carry him?

Heating Up

Mbappé vs The Field: 100 Pickers vs Reality

100 pool pickers went Mbappé. He has 2 goals. Kane has 2. Haaland has 2. Messi has 3. The comfortable front-runner narrative is gone. Every match from here, Mbappé pickers need him to outscore at least 3 other elite strikers who are all running hot. This storyline gets more interesting every day.

Heating Up

Spain's 81-Picker Problem

Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde. They play Saudi Arabia next. 81 pool pickers need them to win the whole tournament. The defending Euro champions haven't scored yet. The anxiety is building and it's going to peak when Spain's group stage record is finalized. Can they recover?

New

Portugal's Ronaldo Problem

Ronaldo went 90 minutes scoreless in a 1-1 draw with DR Congo. 16 pool pickers backed him for the Boot. Portugal now sit in a dangerous position in Group K where Colombia lead. Ronaldo needs to score against Uzbekistan or Portugal risk not advancing. The GOAT debate enters a new chapter.

New

The 8-Way Tie: When Does It Break?

Eight players at 30 points. Identical group stage performance. The first real separation happens when Boot picks pay out, when group winners are decided, or when someone picks a wrong result in round 2. The leaderboard is a pressure cooker. It will explode soon. Watch the next 48 hours.

Developing

The Free Agents Takeover

Three Free Agents in the 8-way tie for 1st. No community identity. No shared strategy. Maximum results. The unclaimed mercenaries of this pool are running the table in the opening week. This is either a statistical anomaly or evidence that having no tribal bias produces better picks. D.A.T.A. is genuinely curious which one it is.

09 Group Stage — Today (June 18)

Group A9:00 AM PDT

🇨🇿 Czechiavs🇿🇦 South Africa

Atlanta Stadium · Atlanta, GA

D.A.T.A. CALL: Czechia 2-1. Both teams lost their openers and need points desperately. Czechia have the better squad on paper. South Africa showed spirit against Mexico but Czechia find a way through. A must-win energy match that produces goals.

Group B12:00 PM PDT

🇨🇭 Switzerlandvs🇧🇦 Bosnia

Los Angeles Stadium · Inglewood, CA

D.A.T.A. CALL: Switzerland 2-0. Both drew 1-1 in round 1. Group B is wide open. Switzerland have the slight edge in quality and this is a must-win for both. D.A.T.A. backs Switzerland to be more clinical in front of goal. Embolo scores one of them.

Group B3:00 PM PDT

🇨🇦 Canadavs🇶🇦 Qatar

Vancouver Stadium · Vancouver, BC

D.A.T.A. CALL: Canada 2-0. Canada desperately want their first-ever World Cup win on home soil. Qatar drew with Switzerland but are the weakest team in Group B. The crowd in Vancouver will be deafening. Larin scores. Canada do it in front of their people.

Group A6:00 PM PDT

🇲🇽 Mexicovs🇰🇷 South Korea

Guadalajara Stadium · Guadalajara, MX

D.A.T.A. CALL: Draw 1-1. Both teams won their openers. Both are sharp. Mexico are missing Montes after a red card but the home crowd energy at Guadalajara Stadium will be extraordinary. South Korea are dangerous on the counter. This one goes to the wire and neither team blinks.

10 D.A.T.A. Hot Take

"The 8-way tie at the top is the most dangerous moment for the pool's favorite picks. When eight players share 1st place with eight different champion picks between them, the 25-point bonus becomes the entire tournament. Spain wins and four of eight leaders celebrate. France wins and two celebrate. England, Argentina, or Spain win the Boot race and the leaderboard reshuffles completely. The group stage is almost meaningless now. This pool will be decided in the final. D.A.T.A. has already started watching June final projections."

— D.A.T.A., June 18, 2026

11 Overall Analysis by D.A.T.A.

The EAPES pool completed its first week of group stage action with a leaderboard that looks nothing like the one the tournament opened with. Mezz's solo reign lasted six days. The 8-way tie at 30 points tells you everything you need to know about how tight this field is — 363 competitors across 17 communities, all converging on the same narrow band of results. With 390 points still available, the group stage scoreline is a rough draft. The final is the real document.

Today's four matches — Czechia, Switzerland, Canada, and Mexico — don't have obvious pool implications unless you backed one of those teams as champion or picked a player from them for the Boot. But the group stage is almost complete for Groups A and B, which means the Group Winner points (5 each, 12 groups = 60 total) are coming into view. That's where the 8-way tie starts to break. Watch who calls the Group A and Group B winners correctly. That is the next real separation point in this pool. D.A.T.A. will be here when it happens.

Kane Delivered.The Throne Has Eight Occupants.

Kane Delivered.
The Throne Has Eight Occupants.